Weekly & Monthly market outlook: Forex majors, Gold, Oil & Crypto – August 25 to September 2026

Market overview: Volatility could stay high

The final week of August has several major catalysts capable of moving currencies, commodities and cryptocurrencies.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release July Personal Income and Outlays, including the PCE inflation index, along with the second estimate of Q2 GDP on August 26. The PCE price index is particularly important because it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.

Attention will then move to Jackson Hole, where the annual economic symposium runs from August 27–29, 2026. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first major Jackson Hole address is expected on Friday, August 28, with traders searching for clues about the Fed's September policy decision.

Markets are also dealing with:

• Persistent inflation concerns
• High global bond yields
• Middle East geopolitical risks
• Elevated energy prices
• U.S.–Canada trade tensions
• Changing expectations for central-bank interest rates

As a result, traders should be prepared for larger-than-normal moves around economic releases and central-bank comments.

Forex market outlook

EUR/USD outlook – Euro remains firm above 1.16
EUR/USD enters the week with the euro trading around 1.16–1.17, after recently benefiting from broad U.S. dollar weakness.

On August 24, EUR/USD was around 1.1680, close to its strongest levels in several months. Meanwhile, recent eurozone economic data have been relatively resilient. August's flash composite PMI rose to 52.1, while manufacturing activity reached its strongest level in more than four years.

Another major factor is the European Central Bank.
 

Markets have become increasingly concerned that persistent inflation and high energy prices could force the ECB to remain hawkish. The ECB's next monetary-policy meeting is scheduled for September 9–10.

EUR/USD levels to watch
Support:
1.1600
1.1500

Resistance:
1.1750
1.1800

Weekly outlook
Holding above 1.1600 would keep the short-term structure relatively constructive. A softer U.S. PCE reading or dovish comments from the Federal Reserve could put additional pressure on the dollar and allow EUR/USD to test the 1.1750–1.1800 region.

However, unexpectedly strong U.S. inflation or hawkish comments from Fed officials could trigger a dollar recovery.

September outlook
September could become particularly important for EUR/USD because both the ECB and Federal Reserve hold policy meetings within days of each other.

The direction of the pair may depend less on whether rates actually change and more on which central bank sounds more concerned about inflation.

 GBP/USD outlook – Pound holds near six-month highs
Sterling has been one of the stronger major currencies recently.

GBP/USD traded near 1.3633 on August 24, after reaching approximately 1.3675, its highest level in six months. The pound has been supported by resilient UK economic activity and continued market speculation that the Bank of England may eventually need to tighten policy again if inflation remains persistent.

GBP/USD levels to watch

Support:
1.3500
1.3400

Resistance:
1.3700
1.3800

Weekly outlook
The 1.3700 area is an important psychological barrier.

A weaker dollar following U.S. inflation data could help GBP/USD attempt another breakout. However, after several weeks of gains, the pound may also be vulnerable to profit-taking.

September outlook

UK inflation, economic growth and future Bank of England expectations will remain major drivers.

If the UK economy continues to hold up while U.S. monetary expectations become less hawkish, sterling could remain supported. Conversely, weaker UK data or renewed dollar demand could pull GBP/USD back toward 1.35.

USD/JPY Outlook – 160 Remains the Key Battleground
USD/JPY continues to trade at elevated levels, with the dollar recently around 159 yen.

The yen's weakness remains a major concern because higher energy import costs can add additional inflation pressure in Japan.

Japan's core consumer inflation accelerated in July, and markets are increasingly watching whether the Bank of Japan could raise rates again at its September 17–18 meeting.

USD/JPY levels to watch

Support:
158.00
156.00

Resistance:
160.00
162.00

Weekly outlook

The 160 level remains extremely important psychologically.

A move above 160 could attract momentum traders, although the higher USD/JPY climbs, the more sensitive markets may become to possible Japanese policy responses.

September outlook

September could produce substantial volatility in yen pairs.

If the Bank of Japan becomes more hawkish while the Federal Reserve becomes less hawkish, the interest-rate gap supporting USD/JPY could narrow.

On the other hand, persistent U.S. inflation and continued Fed tightening expectations could keep the pair elevated.

AUD/USD Outlook – Aussie Tests Multi-Month Highs

AUD/USD has also benefited from recent U.S. dollar weakness, trading around 0.7166, close to three-month highs.

The Australian dollar's September performance will depend heavily on:

• Chinese economic conditions
• Commodity prices
• Australian inflation
• Global risk sentiment
• U.S. dollar direction

Levels to watch

Support:
0.7100
0.7000

Resistance:
0.7200
0.7300

A sustained move above 0.7200 could strengthen bullish momentum, while renewed global risk aversion could quickly pressure the Australian dollar.

Crude oil outlook – Geopolitical risk keeps brent elevated
Oil remains one of the biggest sources of uncertainty for global markets.

Brent crude recently traded around $92–$93 per barrel, while WTI was around $86. Oil prices have stayed elevated because of continuing disruptions and geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

The market is currently balancing two opposing forces.

Bullish factors

• Middle East supply disruption
• Further sanctions on Iran
• Falling global inventories
• Reduced emergency reserve buffers
• Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz

Bearish factors

• Slower Chinese demand
• Possible demand destruction from high prices
• Global economic slowdown
• Further releases from emergency reserves

Brent levels to watch

Support:
$90

Resistance:
$95
$100

September oil outlook

The $100 level could become the major psychological target if geopolitical tensions intensify or additional supply is disrupted.

Reuters analysis has noted that shrinking inventories and declining emergency reserves could make current elevated prices increasingly difficult to suppress if the geopolitical situation worsens.

For forex traders, oil is also important because sharp price movements can influence currencies including CAD, NOK, AUD, JPY and emerging-market currencies.

What Could Drive Markets in September 2026?

Four themes are likely to dominate the coming month.

1. Interest-Rate Expectations

Forex markets ultimately trade relative monetary policy.

The question will not simply be whether the Fed, ECB or BOJ changes interest rates, but which central bank is expected to tighten more aggressively in the months ahead.

Even small changes in expectations can create large moves in currency pairs.

2. Energy Prices

Oil remains capable of changing the entire inflation outlook.

If Brent moves decisively toward or above $100, markets may begin pricing higher inflation for longer, making it harder for central banks to adopt easier monetary policy.

3. Geopolitical Risk

Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, international sanctions and global trade disputes remain important sources of headline risk.

These events can quickly strengthen traditional safe-haven assets such as gold while producing sudden moves across currencies and commodities.

4. U.S. Dollar Direction

The dollar remains the common denominator across most global markets.

A renewed dollar rally could pressure EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, gold and crypto.

Continued dollar weakness could give many of these markets additional room to advance.

Final Thoughts

The transition from August into September 2026 could be one of the more important periods for global markets this quarter.

For forex traders, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY will be closely tied to changing interest-rate expectations.

For commodity traders, gold's battle with $4,700 and Brent crude's potential move toward $100 deserve particular attention.

For cryptocurrency traders, Bitcoin's attempt to establish itself above $80,000 could determine whether the latest recovery develops into a broader bullish move or becomes another temporary rebound.

Above everything else, traders should keep an eye on U.S. inflation, Jackson Hole, central-bank policy and geopolitical developments.

Periods of high volatility can create opportunity, but they also increase risk. Position sizing, stop-loss discipline and careful management of trading costs remain essential.